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View 3 posts and 6 comments by Dan_Nakama on TheRedPill subreddit and various other subreddits related to The Red Pill community.
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1

Yes I've tried to make the big decisions in my life financially and personally based on trying to gauge the likely returns and arbitrage where possible (for example marrying foreign/traditional rather than Western). I agree with what you say though looking at a single person / small sample size of outcomes proves nothing. It's about trying to stack the deck in your favor rather than looking at a single outcome. What would be great to study though is the distribution of outcomes of say a bunch of…
/r/MarriedRedPill21/08/17 12:56 PM
1

I agree, I don't think it's possible to reduce all of life's decisions to a set of numbers. I'm trying to highlight here though that there is a vast amount of literature out there in finance about Expected Returns (and a lot of very smart people making a lot of money off the back of it). I feel that a lot of the concepts (such as risk premia) that are used are also applicable to some of the big personal decisions we make in life and also that the theories behind MRP also implicitly make assumpti…
/r/MarriedRedPill21/08/17 06:43 AM
1

It's the difference between ex-ante and ex-post returns. You cannot know what your ex-post return will be before the event but you can control the bet you take. You can take a bet knowing the range of outcomes that you are likely to fall within and increase your Expected Return by making a wise investment. You can't control how the cards will fall (or how another person such as your wife reacts) but you can stack the deck in your favor such as by investing in a decent wife in the first place or …
/r/MarriedRedPill21/08/17 06:31 AM
1

Agreed will try and flesh out. It was supposed to be an intro to the topic catering to people who have no concept of what Expected Returns are and how they are used in Finance. In your example though my point would be that not all risk is equal. Sometimes you get paid to take risk in the form of a risk premia. Other times you're just taking on extra risk for less or no reward. A high beta stock might have a lower Expected Return than a low beta stock depending on when/how much you buy it for. Yo…
/r/MarriedRedPill18/08/17 10:34 PM
1

In the next post I'll flesh out more why you should look to use forward looking indicators to predict Expected Returns and not just Historical Performance :)
/r/MarriedRedPill18/08/17 10:22 PM
1

It's supposed to be just an intro to a massive topic. I will flesh it out more in a subsequent post but thanks for the feedback.
/r/MarriedRedPill18/08/17 10:14 PM
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